the TD Ameritrade thinkorswim® platform, burst through resistance at the 2176 level after the jobs report, and further resistance is seen at 2183. It’s also a bit early to start speculating about Q3 economic growth, especially since the market is just recovering from the government’s first estimate for Q2 GDP, but it’s worth noting that the Atlanta Fed projects Q3 GDP growth at 3.8%, which sounds quite healthy compared to the approximately 1% growth seen so far for the first half of the year.įigure 1: SPX Pedals Through Resistance: The S&P 500 (SPX), plotted here through midday Friday on. Later this month, Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak, and her comments could be closely watched for any hints of the Fed’s thinking on the rate front as well as its perspective on the broader economy.
Though talk after the jobs report immediately turned to potential increased odds for a rate hike, remember that the Fed’s September meeting remains a long way off, and there’s another jobs report and a lot of other data between now and then. The odds for a hike in December climbed above 40%. After falling below 1.5% earlier in the week, 10-year Treasury yields climbed above 1.56%.Ĭhances of a September rate hike are now pegged at 18%, according to the futures market, up from 12% before the jobs report. rate hike at some point this year, and rising bond yields could reflect that psychology. The strong jobs data appeared to indicate a better chance for a U.S. Treasury bond market as of midday Friday. Speaking of hammered, the same could be said for the U.S.
That’s not far off the lows set in the summer of 2015, and VIX is now down almost 14% in the last three weeks. They fell to a new low for the year at 11.25 as of midday. Also getting hammered Friday were VIX futures, which measure market volatility. Gold, which had been rallying, fell sharply on Friday. The dollar rose against the euro, the pound, and the yen on Friday. dollar a jolt after the currency had slumped for a few days. What’s important is to see new jobs that give people the ability to build solid careers, and this report offered more evidence of that. The government added jobs as well, but this could be a seasonal effect.
#The encore bet cast professional#
Those services jobs, by the way, were mainly high quality, with lots of the new services positions coming from professional and technical jobs. Hospitality and leisure added 45,000 new positions. Health care rose 43,000, and Wall Street jobs increased by 18,000. Professional and business services had the most jobs created, coming in at 70,000 new positions, the government said. Hourly wages rose at a rate that outpaced expectations, and the quality of the jobs added was mostly pretty good. Going back to Friday’s Payrolls report, which showed a gain of 255,000 jobs in July and retroactively raised payroll growth for May and June, there’s a lot to like. Other pending reports include the Investor Movement Index®, or the IMX SM, data on Monday from TD Ameritrade, which tracks whether retail traders are buyers or sellers in the markets and where they’re allocating their money and July Producer Price Index (PPI) data on Friday.
The nice data from the July jobs report would seem to indicate some growing wage pressure, with wages up 2.6% over the last year and 0.3% in July, so it will be interesting to see if the JOLTS reports shows lots of openings in high-wage positions. Will consumers continue to show up at the stores? We’ll find out on Friday.Īnother report to watch in the week ahead is the June “JOLTS” job openings, which are due out Wednesday morning. Though July may seem early to some to talk about school spending, remember that college begins within days for many, and also some elementary schools on non-traditional schedules have already started classes.Ĭonsumers have been behind a lot of the recent economic strength, as even the otherwise tepid Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) report showed late last month. The back-to-school season may give brick-and-mortar a fighting chance to shine, because shopping for school supplies is often an active endeavor, with parents and kids going to the store together to pick out favorite products. July retail sales, which come after strong 0.6% retail sales growth in June, could be interesting to watch to see what the report says about how brick-and-mortar stores performed vs.
job and wage growth could be tough to follow, but Friday’s monthly retail sales data could grab some of the post-jobs report spotlight.
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